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The Stockdale Paradox
James Stockdale was a military man – a naval aviator who flew for the US out of aircraft carriers. In September 1965, while flying a mission for the US forces in Vietnam, Stockdale’s plane was hit and he ejected only to be captured by the Vietnamese and held prisoner in what ended up being called the Hanoi Hilton – the most brutal prisoner-of-war camp you could imagine.
He survived the most horrendous experiences including being tortured. He self-mutilated on three separate occasions to prevent his captors from parading him as a prisoner. He was held for years in solitary confinement in a cell one meter wide by three metres long and the only form of communication was a code he and his fellow prisoners devised of tapping to communicate. He survived this for seven and a half years before his eventual release in February 1973.
He went back to the military, teaching and eventually ran for Vice President of the USA as Ross Perot’s running mate on the independent ticket.
I tell you this story for a reason – there are many such stories of incredible triumph of human spirit, the will to survive and the ability to overcome the most awful things. This story has something though in it that makes it worth telling.
Stockdale was interviewed by Jim Collins, author of “Good to Great”, and said the following:
“I never lost faith in the end of the story, I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”
When Collins asked who didn't make it out of Vietnam, Stockdale replied:
“Oh, that's easy, the optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”
Stockdale then added:
“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Collins went on to describe this as the Stockdale Paradox and said:
What separates people, Stockdale taught me, is not the presence or absence of difficulty, but how they deal with the inevitable difficulties of life. In wrestling with life’s challenges, the Stockdale Paradox (you must retain faith that you will prevail in the end and you must also confront the brutal facts of your current reality) has proved powerful for coming back from difficulties not weakened, but stronger…”
This is the combination of optimism, pessimism and realism. The optimist believes that all will be fine in the end, no matter what. The pessimist believes that the worst will happen – again no matter what. Both have a fatalistic view on life and while they expect different outcomes, they resign themselves to the fates.
The optimist says the glass is half-full. The pessimist says it is half-empty. The realist says there is water in the glass.
The realist looks at his situation a little more closely and that is what Stockdale speaks of. He realised he was in an awful situation. He realised that he needed tremendous courage and fortitude to survive and he does all he can to control what he hopes is a positive outcome.
I ask you thus to be realistically optimistic! Have faith in a bright future – whether it is yours, your school’s or your country’s. But – at the same time look at the challenges along the way, look at the realities we face. Don’t be blind to your challenges. When I have been asked by overseas colleagues or friends about SA I am always optimistic but I do acknowledge we have a long journey to undertake. I share with them the realities of crime, poverty, education and health but I also share with them stories of incredible courage and human kindness.
When you are having a tough time, hopefully nothing like Stockdale endured, acknowledge that, assess your situation realistically, stare it in the face with all its difficulties and ugliness and deal with the issues with a belief that you can influence your future and you can overcome the reality of your situation. |
